Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters,
pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or
Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee,
and a well-known Vegas odds-maker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.
But as an odds-maker with a pretty remarkable track
record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common
sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years
Predictions. I predicted back then - before a single GOP primary had been held,
with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry
to Herman Cain to Newt - that Romney would easily rout his competition to win
the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race
between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on
election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of
a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was
losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common
sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years
ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people
who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off,
or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in
U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among
this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black
church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got
in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among
this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an
extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good
news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of
Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict
Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60?s. This is not good
news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama?s biggest and most enthusiastic
believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young
people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The
enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will
actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in
2008. That won?t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went
to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the
Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President
last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally
thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of
friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to ?give someone
different a chance.? I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and
demonize anyone who owned a business...that he?d support unions over the
private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and
debt. My friends didn?t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my
circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not
good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a
thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red
Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn?t contraception?it?s having
a job to pay for contraception. Obama?s economy frightens these moms. They are
worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children?s future.
This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points.
Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama,
the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has
gained since 2008? Will anyone in
America wake up on election day saying ?I didn?t vote for Obama 4 years ago.
But he?s done such a fantastic job, I can?t wait to vote for him today.? Does
anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker
and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide
and a world-class repudiation of Obama?s radical and risky socialist agenda.
It's 'Reagan vs. Carter' all over again.
But I?ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living
proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
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