Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits,
or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither.
I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas
oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a
resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan
was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So
why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense.
Here is my gut instinct: not one American who voted for McCain four years ago
will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who
voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off,
or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S.
politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this
group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.
This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this
group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an
extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good
news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel.
Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s
Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news
for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic
believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young
people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The
enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will
actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008.
That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war
with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the
Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last
time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of
small business owners. At least 40 percent of them in my circle of friends,
fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a
chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize
anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in
a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends
didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small
business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good
news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing?
White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans
feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a
job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are
worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future.
This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans
. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24
points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked
him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since
2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for
Obama four years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote
for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more
secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common
sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda.
It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.
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